Joe Soriano
O.J. Lewis6/2011 Team Scope: San Diego Padres
June 5th 2011 14:51
Last season, the Padres were baseball's surprise story and were in first place in their division for most of the year. Their devastating collapse at the end of the year- and the incredible comeback by the Giants who would eventually win the World Series- has continued on to this season. The Padres are last in the poor but competitive NL West.
It's no surprise that their hitting has been awful, and that's the reason why they are last in their division. Their rotation has been disappointing, especially when you consider that their ballpark is PETCO. The Padres do have one of the best bullpens in baseball with Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson, and Pat Neshek.
Nick Hundley, who has been good this year, is on the 15-day DL as is free agent signing Orlando Hudson who has not been so good this year. Cameron Maybin has been great in the field and the best player on the team so far, but I really hate is contact. I think he's going to bat under .240 for the season with his strikeout rate. He's got a high BABIP, and he's still barely hitting over .250. It just shows how pathetic the Padres are offensively.
The thing is that Maybin has been the best fielder and baserunner on the team, so that's what makes his WAR 1.8. Kyle Phillips is getting more time with Hundley out. The former prized Blue Jays' prospect has shown some nice flashes of power, and I think he needs to get more playing time over Rob Johnson. What do they have to lose?
Ryan Ludwick leads the team in homers, but he also has the highest fly ball rate in the majors. He's also hitting .257 which shows you that he is still the same old Ryan Ludwick. A guy who hits fly balls and doesn't get on base. Jorge Cantu has been a bust signing so far because he's been doing nothing of note lately besides sucking.
Chris Denorfia and Chase Headley have been the only other players that have been hitting well. Denorfia has been the team's best hitter so far. He's getting on base, but he's definitely in for a huge regression on the contact side which would mean he would go back to being his usual subpar hitting self. Headley is producing runs, but he can't field. His BABIP is .347 and his BA is .275. That may seem way off, but his career BABIP is .333. So I think he'll end up hitting about .270 for the year.
On to the pitching side of the Padres. Tim Stauffer has been very unlucky so far this year, and he's been pitching better than the numbers indicate. Stauffer has been his team's best pitcher so far, but I can't see Mat Latos not getting back on track and pitching very well the rest of the way. These are both two pitchers to keep an eye on.
I think Pat Neshek will regress, and Clayton Richard is going to keep pitching poorly. There's nothing to indicate that things will improve for the young hurler. Although Chad Qualls has a .242 BABIP, he has been able to induce groundballs. I think Qualls still remains effective as the year goes on. Mike Adams is a guy who will definitely see his sub 2.00 ERA go up. He's a very good set-up man who gets K's, but he has been far too lucky this year with a .197 BABIP, a 92.1 LOB%, and a 41.3 GB%.
Pat Neshek and Chad Qualls are polar opposites in terms of pitchers whose fastballs have been more effective. Neshek doesn't use his fastball very much, and for good reason because it is barely over 85 miles an hour. Neshek does make good adjustments because his slider is his most-thrown pitch and his most effective this year. It's been downright nasty so far, while Clayton Richard has struggled with it. Well, he's struggled with all his pitches except his fastball and average curveball.
Dustin Moseley has been solid so far this year thanks to his cutter and curveball, but he should cut down on his changeup usage because he's not fooling anybody with it. Part of it may be because he hasn't successfully used his fastball to set up his change. Having an average fastball velocity just a tick under 89 miles an hour also doesn't help too much either. Mat Latos and Tim Stauffer's have also struggled because their off-speed stuff has been quite up to par yet, but I'm confident that their overall stats will get better.
It's no surprise that their hitting has been awful, and that's the reason why they are last in their division. Their rotation has been disappointing, especially when you consider that their ballpark is PETCO. The Padres do have one of the best bullpens in baseball with Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson, and Pat Neshek.
Nick Hundley, who has been good this year, is on the 15-day DL as is free agent signing Orlando Hudson who has not been so good this year. Cameron Maybin has been great in the field and the best player on the team so far, but I really hate is contact. I think he's going to bat under .240 for the season with his strikeout rate. He's got a high BABIP, and he's still barely hitting over .250. It just shows how pathetic the Padres are offensively.
The thing is that Maybin has been the best fielder and baserunner on the team, so that's what makes his WAR 1.8. Kyle Phillips is getting more time with Hundley out. The former prized Blue Jays' prospect has shown some nice flashes of power, and I think he needs to get more playing time over Rob Johnson. What do they have to lose?
Ryan Ludwick leads the team in homers, but he also has the highest fly ball rate in the majors. He's also hitting .257 which shows you that he is still the same old Ryan Ludwick. A guy who hits fly balls and doesn't get on base. Jorge Cantu has been a bust signing so far because he's been doing nothing of note lately besides sucking.
Chris Denorfia and Chase Headley have been the only other players that have been hitting well. Denorfia has been the team's best hitter so far. He's getting on base, but he's definitely in for a huge regression on the contact side which would mean he would go back to being his usual subpar hitting self. Headley is producing runs, but he can't field. His BABIP is .347 and his BA is .275. That may seem way off, but his career BABIP is .333. So I think he'll end up hitting about .270 for the year.
On to the pitching side of the Padres. Tim Stauffer has been very unlucky so far this year, and he's been pitching better than the numbers indicate. Stauffer has been his team's best pitcher so far, but I can't see Mat Latos not getting back on track and pitching very well the rest of the way. These are both two pitchers to keep an eye on.
I think Pat Neshek will regress, and Clayton Richard is going to keep pitching poorly. There's nothing to indicate that things will improve for the young hurler. Although Chad Qualls has a .242 BABIP, he has been able to induce groundballs. I think Qualls still remains effective as the year goes on. Mike Adams is a guy who will definitely see his sub 2.00 ERA go up. He's a very good set-up man who gets K's, but he has been far too lucky this year with a .197 BABIP, a 92.1 LOB%, and a 41.3 GB%.
Pat Neshek and Chad Qualls are polar opposites in terms of pitchers whose fastballs have been more effective. Neshek doesn't use his fastball very much, and for good reason because it is barely over 85 miles an hour. Neshek does make good adjustments because his slider is his most-thrown pitch and his most effective this year. It's been downright nasty so far, while Clayton Richard has struggled with it. Well, he's struggled with all his pitches except his fastball and average curveball.
Dustin Moseley has been solid so far this year thanks to his cutter and curveball, but he should cut down on his changeup usage because he's not fooling anybody with it. Part of it may be because he hasn't successfully used his fastball to set up his change. Having an average fastball velocity just a tick under 89 miles an hour also doesn't help too much either. Mat Latos and Tim Stauffer's have also struggled because their off-speed stuff has been quite up to par yet, but I'm confident that their overall stats will get better.
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